Iran / USA: possible scenarios if Trump decides to attack
As Donald Trump warns Iran that ‘time is running out’ for a nuclear deal (see ), and with US forces reportedly preparing for strikes on Iran within days, the consequences are far from clear. Limited ‘surgical’ attacks could hit Revolutionary Guard facilities, missile sites and nuclear infrastructure, but hopes for a rapid transition to democracy look highly optimistic, given past interventions elsewhere. Another scenario is the regime surviving but moderating its behaviour, though Iran’s leaders have historically resisted change. Many observers fear a collapse followed by hard-line military rule, or worse, nationwide chaos and conflict involving ethnic minorities. Iran has vowed retaliation, which could take the form of missile and drone attacks on US bases or warships, or mining the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital shipping ‘chokepoint’, especially for global oil and LNG. Iran’s Arab neighbours, all US allies, are understandably jittery that Iran could attack them. The most dangerous scenario is escalation into a wider war with no clear end-state and severe regional and economic fallout.
Minneapolis: continuing protests and criticism over federal crackdown
Two agents have been placed on administrative leave following the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old intensive care nurse, in Minneapolis on 24 January. The killing has sparked protests, national outrage, and calls for accountability within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Initial official claims that Pretti was brandishing a gun have been questioned after video analysis found no weapon visible. A preliminary report states the shooting occurred during a physical struggle, contradicting earlier statements. The incident comes as protests continue over the federal immigration crackdown. Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey has clashed publicly with Donald Trump over immigration enforcement and rhetoric, while another critic, Representative Ilhan Omar, who was attacked in a public meeting on 26 January, has blamed Trump for increases in threats against her. With tensions running high and investigations continue, lawmakers are considering impeachment proceedings and removing funding for DHS in spending legislation which Congress must pass to keep the government from shutting down on 1 February. For an example of the heavy-handedness of the federal approach, see
Africa: climate change causing drought in the east, floods in the south
For reporter Haru Mutasa, covering climate change stories was not part of the plan, yet one assignment led relentlessly to another. A routine trip to Kenya’s Mandera County revealed a devastating drought along the Kenya–Somalia border. Dry riverbeds, starving camels and burned livestock graves told a grim story. Communities depended on infrequent water deliveries, sharing muddy water with animals. Pastoralists like Mohamed Hussein had lost most of their livestock, struggling to keep families alive. After leaving Kenya, Haru thought the story was over. Instead, heavy rains and floods swept across southern Africa. Soon she was deployed again, this time to Mozambique. In Maputo, neighbourhoods lay submerged in filthy floodwaters. Further south, highways had disappeared underwater and farmland had vanished beneath rising rivers. With dams upstream full, more flooding threatens. While the world looks elsewhere, these communities remain, facing a climate crisis that refuses to pause.
Venezuela: over a hundred political prisoners freed
More than a hundred people held as political prisoners in Venezuela have been freed, according to the human rights group Foro Penal (FP). Among them were FP lawyer Kennedy Tejeda and communications student Juan Francisco Alvarado. Tejeda, a lawyer and human rights defender, had disappeared after visiting detainees in Carabobo state on 2 August 2024 to provide legal assistance, and had since been held in Tocorón prison. While welcoming his return to his family, FP also urged the government to publish official release lists. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez promised to release prisoners detained under Nicolás Maduro following his refusal to concede the 2024 presidential election. She said this marked the beginning of a ‘new political moment’ which allowed greater political and ideological diversity. According to FP, there were 777 political prisoners in Venezuelan jails as of 19 January.
